During the first quarter of 2016 we’ve had an influx of both second homeowners and tourists alike. Our restaurants and watering holes have been full to capacity every weekend with everybody enjoying the entertainment scene in Crested Butte. The ski resort closed last Sunday to a very enthusiastic last day of great skiing, fun costumes and crazy antics.
Getting to the really important things… statistics. We’re excited about our average price and sales volume being up 49.9% and 27% respectively. Fewer properties sold this quarter compared to 2015’s first quarter yet the gains were highest in residential sales. The residential markets were up in every micro market except Crested Butte South. Land sales were unpredictable as most people would like to see the bare ground before buying!
We are off to a great start for 2016 and expect our busiest season, summer, to grow again this year. With sales volume slightly down due to a smaller inventory we will continue to see growth in average prices throughout the market.
In 2015, the real estate markets in Crested Butte and Gunnison grew more than was predicted. The Crested Butte area market grew by a strong 9% compared to 2014 while the Gunnison area market grew by a staggering 93% compared to 2014. Not only was sales volume up in both markets but also average price and the number of properties sold increased as well.
The market segments that did exceptionally well in sales volume increases were Single Family Homes in Mt. Crested Butte (47%), Single Family Homes in Rural Crested Butte (65%), Single Family Homes in Almont and Rural Gunnison (65%) and Single Family Homes in Gunnison (172%). Also all land markets did well with sales volume increasing in all segments. CB South grew by an astonishing 183%.
As we enter into 2016 we expect to continue to see healthy growth in our real estate markets in our area. Growth in tourism throughout both the winter and summer months and more people telecommuting, will in turn create more of a demand for properties in our area. So far we are off to a strong start in 2016 with currently over $40 million in properties under contract as of January 7th.
The overall real estate market has continued strong growth throughout 2015 while being up almost 15% over 2014 for the upper valley. The main reason for the overall growth is that single family homes just outside of the Town of Crested Butte and south all the way into the City of Gunnison have all seen large sales volume growth in between 43% to 173%. Also all segments of vacant land and lots have seen huge growth from 2014. The segments that have leveled off or even dipped are single family homes, condos and townhomes in both the towns of Crested Butte and Mt. Crested Butte.
The fourth quarter of 2015 looks to level off quite a bit compared to the high sales volume numbers that happened during late summer and early fall. We forecast that our local real estate market will end up with a growth between 5 and 10 percent.
The first half of 2015 has been very strong. We have had our largest sales volume months in May and June since 2007. Almost every segment of our market has seen increases in total sales volume and increases in median and average price. Some of the larger gains were made in Rural Crested Butte homes and Gunnison area homes. Vacant land has also started to trade again with more parcels selling around Gunnison County.
The outlook for the rest of 2015 remains positive. The summer selling season will be another strong one as there are more visitors in the area, prices here are still favorable compared to other resort towns and historically we close on more real estate in August, September and October. Average prices will continue to increase as inventory continues to decrease.
The start to 2015 was much busier than the start to 2014. Compared to last year we are up over 25% in sales volume in single family homes and vacant land. The only sector that saw a slight dip was condominiums and townhomes in Mt. Crested Butte.
Not only was it busier throughout the first quarter but that also carried into the end of March. Many of our agents put numerous properties under contract in the last two weeks of March. There are currently 93 properties under contract of which our office commands 30 of those contracts.
With the warmer temperatures and the snow melting out quickly we will have a short mud season and our real estate off season will be very short. More people will be looking in April, May and June than in years past which should equate for a strong second quarter in 2015.
Our 2014 market ended as strong as expected. We were expecting our market to be up around 5% to 7% at the end of the year and we ended up 6.5% in the upper valley and up 7.2% in Gunnison County compared to 2013. The sectors of our market that were strong were homes, condos and townhomes in Crested Butte, condos in Mt. Crested Butte and land in the Rural Gunnison area. Most other sectors were mixed from the previous year with the major exception being single family homes in the Rural Crested Butte area which was down by over 27%.
What does this mean for 2015? We are expecting to see similar growth in our 2015 real estate market. Some factors that could negatively affect our 2015 market are a lack of inventory, especially homes in the town of Crested Butte, a lack of lower end properties, as some buyers could start to be priced out of our market, and if the price of crude oil continues to drop or hover near record lows, some of our middle to higher end properties might be vulnerable. Even with these negative factors we still expect our market to grow as visitor numbers were considerably up in 2014 with no signs of slowing down this year and the Crested Butte area is still an incredible value compared to other Colorado ski towns.
The third quarter ended up being as strong as predicted. The sales in the third quarter helped our market rebound and we are now slightly above the pace of 2013 sales volume. The strongest sector of our market has been single family homes, condos and townhomes within the town of Crested Butte as prices and sales volume have risen significantly. There have also been more condos in Mt. Crested Butte sold this year compared to last year with 22 more units selling in 2014. All other residential sectors have been steady compared to last year except for single family homes in Rural Crested Butte with the number of transactions in the Rural Crested Butte area lagging.
As we enter the off season between fall colors and the holiday season, we expect our year end market for 2014 to grow over 2013. We are encouraged by the 104 properties that are currently under contract in the Gunnison County with over $49.3 million in listing volume. If the majority of these properties close we will be slightly above our 2013 sales volume. Plus any properties that go under contract and close before the end of the year should get our market to a healthy 5 to 7 percent growth for 2014.
The local real estate market is recovering from the slow first quarter but still is not quite there yet. In the Crested Butte area we are down 25% which is better than the 50% we were down in the first quarter. A lot of this can be attributed to the lack of sales in the Single Family home segment in Rural Crested Butte as this segment was down over $15 million. Another contributing factor is that the high end sales in our market have been slow in the Second Quarter, as can be seen on our Significant Sales page. Our highest price to date for 2014 is $1,925,000.
Our market will steadily improve with the abundance of visitors in town over the summer. We believe growth and values are increasing at a sustainable rate. There are currently 75 properties under contract in the Gunnison County with over $36.8 million in listing volume. Depending on how the Third and Fourth Quarters shape up we will end up close to our 2013 final numbers.
With a myriad of things happening this winter such as rumors of the ski resort selling, a colder winter throughout the nation and a snowier winter in Crested Butte than we have had in multiple years, the First Quarter of 2014 was much slower than 2013. Buyers were more inclined to ski the fresh powder and take a wait and see approach to purchasing this winter. Buyers finally did decide to start moving and putting properties under contract toward the end of March with a flurry of properties going under. Currently in the Gunnison County there are 85 properties under contract with a listing value of $34.6 million, with the majority closing in the Second Quarter.
The only segment of our market that made improvements was the condo and townhome market in Mt. Crested Butte. Due to the abundance of snow this winter, many skiers were in town to partake in the amazing skiing. The increase of skiers in town helped drive the sale of lower to middle range condos and townhomes. This segment almost doubled in sales volume from the previous year.
The overall real estate market has improved greatly in 2013 as compared to 2012. In the upper valley in 2013 there were over $146 million worth of transactions, an increase of over $31 million in sales volume from the previous year. There were also 65 more properties sold in the upper valley.
This market report shows all areas of Single Family Homes, Condos and Townhomes increasing in total sales volume and the majority of individual areas have seen an increase in average price, more properties selling within 10% or less of list price and a decrease in days on market.
Vacant Land and Lot transactions are still all over the place with most areas holding steady on average and median prices and sales volume. With a decrease in inventory of homes and condos we might start seeing an increase in land and lot sales in 2014.
Overall 2013 was a very strong year throughout Gunnison County with increases in sales volume, price and numbers of properties sold and a decrease in days on market.
The overall real estate market has improved greatly for 2013 over this same time period in 2012. In the upper valley our sales volume in the first three quarters has already surpassed the entire year of 2012.
The next few pages show all aspects of Single Family Homes, Condos and Townhomes increasing in total sales volume and the majority of individual areas have seen an increase in average price, more properties have sold within 10% or less of list price, and fewer days on market.
Vacant Land and Lots are kind of a mixed bag with the exception of the Town of Crested Butte as the only area with strong numbers throughout.
The third quarter was very strong, with $64 million in sales this quarter alone. 13 of the properties were sold at over $1 million.